Western Australia heads to the polls today for a state election that looks all but certain to give Labor a third term in government.
Liberal leader Libby Mettam has spoken of her intent to win today's election, but the party requires a monumental swing to secure a shock return to government.
That's thanks to the historic 2021 result, when Labor, buoyed by the popularity of then-premier Mark McGowan and his response to the pandemic, claimed a record 53 of 59 seats in the lower house with just under 70 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.
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Not only was it the largest majority in the state's history, it was the most resounding win in any Australian election.
So bad was the Liberals' performance that it only won two seats, leaving it with half of what the Nationals won and relegating it to the junior opposition party.
McGowan stepped down in 2023, with Roger Cook now leading the state and party in his place.
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While he doesn't have his predecessor's resounding popularity, Cook has still consistently outperformed Mettam as preferred premier, and opinion polls also have Labor well ahead: two published this week gave the government a 57-43 lead over the Liberals.
While that represents a nigh-on 13 per cent swing against Labor, a two-party vote on that scale would still give it the second-largest majority in state history, eclipsing the 41 seats it won with 55.5 per cent of the vote in 2019.
So weak is the Liberal position that the party needs about a 25 per cent swing to win government.
Cook, though, has been playing down expectations of another crushing election victory.
"Any government would be happy with 50 per cent plus one," he said earlier this week.
"We're not counting seats."
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Boosted by its rich natural resources and healthy GST receipts, Western Australia has the country's healthiest economy, with a $3.2 billion surplus last year expected to be followed by a $2.6 billion one.
But that hasn't insulated the state from many of the same issues facing the rest of the country.
"Families are struggling under cost-of-living pressures, our health system is broken, homes are unaffordable and hard to find, and crime is out of control," Mettam said in a pitch to voters earlier this week.
Housing, in particular, has become a key issue as home prices and rents soar in Perth while vacancy rates nosedive, leading to a raft of election promises, including Labor's pledge to increase the stamp duty exemption threshold for first-home buyers.
Meanwhile, ambulance ramping remains a sore point for the government.
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While in opposition, Cook criticised 1000 hours of ambulance as being a "crisis" for the then-Barnett government, but the figure has reached as high as 5424 in January.
All parties have promised hundreds of millions for healthcare projects should they win government.
While Labor is all but certain to claim victory tonight, the exact results will be closely watched across the country with a federal election drawing ever closer.
Anthony Albanese's federal Labor benefitted greatly from the popularity of their state counterparts in 2022, picking up four seats that were crucial in delivering majority government.
Another strong showing for WA Labor today would give Albanese and his government hope of maintaining a red wall in the west as a buffer against Peter Dutton's rise in the polls, whereas an expectedly good performance for the Liberals could signal a change of federal government is possible when the entire country votes in a few months.
Polls open at 8am (AWST – 11am AEDT) and close at 6pm.
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