Australia is staring down the barrel of a dry, hot autumn

Review Long February 21, 2026 0

Australia will sweat through a dry, hot autumn as long-range forecasts show above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall on the horizon.

There will be no relief at night either, with above-average overnight temperatures predicted across much of Australia for March, April and May.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) also currently rates the chances of an El Niño developing in the second half of the year at about 90 per cent, bringing more hot, dry conditions.

Here's what Australians have to look forward to in autumn 2026.

Ocean swimmers head into the water at Coogee in Sydney as the sun shines on the water.

Autumn temperatures

The BOM is predicting temperatures are very likely (about 80 per cent) to be above average across most of the country from March to May.

It's expected that maximum temperatures will surge well above average in NSW, the ACT, Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania and WA this autumn.

Chances are a little lower in Queensland and the Northern Territory at about 50 per cent.

Temperatures will stay high when the sun goes down too.

According to the BOM, it's very likely overnight temperatures will be above average across much of Australia.

A map showing the chance of Australia's temperature exceeding the median from March to May 2026. It shows very high chances across most of the country.

Autumn rainfall

The BOM is predicting below-average autumn rainfall across most of Australia's southern regions, including NSW, the ACT, Victoria, South Australia, and most parts of WA.

North-eastern Tasmania and South Australia's interior specifically are forecast to receive unusually low rainfall.

The drier-than-average conditions could put some states on high alert for bushfire risk.

It's a slightly different story up north.

The rainfall forecast for March to May in much of northern Australia isn't leaning one way or another yet, meaning it could be below, above, or right on average.

And parts of Cape York Peninsula, the Top End and northern Kimberley are slated for above-average rainfall in March.