The success or failure of One Nation's first federal test could hinge on two major elements: gas and water.
One Nation is hot on the heels of the Liberals in the crowded Farrer by-election next month, where the twin issues of gas exports and the health of the Murray-Darling Basin loom large for voters.
Pauline Hanson said she was confident the major parties had lost the respect of voters in the south-western NSW seat over the federal government's controversial plan to buy back more water out of the Murray-Darling Basin.
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"I think both major political parties have a lot to answer about the water issue," Hanson told Nine.com.au.
"That has never been sorted out.
"I believe that we need a royal commission into the Murray-Darling Basin and how that's been handled."
Hanson said Labor and the Coalition were "not in tune with grassroots Australians".
She said the government's mismanagement of resources was pushing voters away, particularly in regional areas.
The hot contest for Farrer may be One Nation's golden opportunity to capitalise on this fatigue.
Farrer, made vacant by former opposition leader Sussan Ley, could become a neck-and-neck battle between One Nation candidate David Farley and Independent Michelle Milthorpe.
The Liberal Party has selected lawyer Raissa Butkowski to run for Ley's open seat, while Labor has yet to field a candidate.
Water reform is a key pillar of One Nation candidate Farley's campaign.
The former jackaroo, irrigation specialist and cotton farmer said he would prioritise "disciplined" water management if elected.
However, The Australia Institute co-chief executive Dr Richard Denniss said One Nation's climate policy misalignment with rural voters might pose a challenge for the right-wing party.
Denniss said "anger" about the federal government's water management wasn't quite enough for struggling farmers.
"Farmers know that climate change is real, and while they may share Pauline Hanson's anger at the major parties, they know that anger won't bring the river back to good health," he explained.
Farley's reputation could prove to be another barrier.
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Minor party Family First announced it would not preference One Nation this election due to "serious concerns about the conduct and record" of Farley.
Farley was accused of sharing erotic posts by OnlyFans creators on Instagram and criticised for previous comments he made about former prime minister Julia Gillard, likening her to an "old cow".
Farley said at the time that his remarks about Gillard were "tongue-in-cheek" and had been taken out of context.
"Politics should be about lifting standards, not lowering them. The character of candidates matters," Family First national director Lyle Shelton said.
"Comments previously attributed to Mr Farley about former prime minister Julia Gillard were offensive and demeaning – not just to her, but to all women.
"This points to a deeper problem."
Denniss said he had "no doubt" Family First's decision to disendorse a One Nation candidate could impact Farley's chances at attracting voters away from the LNP and independents.
Farrer's election result is dependent on complicated preference flows.
"But ultimately it's important for each voter to understand that it is the individual with the pencil in their hand that decides where their preferences go, not any political party," he told Nine.com.au.
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The issue of Australia's gas exports is just as crucial as the Basin for the farming communities in the rural NSW seat.
More than 77 per cent of those surveyed agreed that Australia exports too much gas.
"What our polling makes clear is that a strong majority of all voters in Farrer, and an even stronger majority of One Nation voters, want Australia to get a fairer share of the profits from the enormous amount of gas we export," Denniss said.
"I'm sure that for some voters the health of the Murray is a more pressing problem than the fact that Australia gives so much gas away for free, but the issues aren't unrelated."
A March poll conducted by The Australia Institute found Farley was narrowly leading Milthorpe on primary votes.
Of the 1000 Farrer voters surveyed, 28.7 per cent said One Nation would receive their first preference vote, ahead of the independents at 23.3 per cent and the LNP at 19.1 per cent.
Farley declined to comment when contacted by Nine.com.au.
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